Economists Predict Significant Probability of U.S. Recession in Bankrate Survey
According to a recent survey conducted by Bankrate, economists predict a 3-in-5 likelihood of a recession occurring in the United States within the next year.
The survey, published on July 12, 2023, indicates that experts estimate a 59% chance of a recession taking place by July 2024. Bankrate highlights that the forecasts from economists suggest a greater probability of a downturn than its absence. The survey further reveals that 78% of respondents believe the chances of a recession are greater than 1-in-2, with 28% indicating odds of 70% or higher. Other organizations, including ITR Economics and HSBC Asset Management, also support the belief in an impending U.S. recession. Factors contributing to this prediction include rising interest rates, strict monetary policies, potential bank failures, inverted bond yields, and vulnerabilities in the global economy.
Abbey Omodunbi, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services, emphasizes that the aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve makes a recession the most likely outcome. Moreover, Statista’s projections indicate a forecasted probability of 70.85% for another economic recession in the United States by May 2024. Scott Anderson, the chief economist at Bank of the West, shares the sentiment, stating that a downturn is probable by the end of this year.
Clever Robot News Desk 15th July 2023
