US Recession Risk Dropped to 20% According to Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs economists have reduced the probability of a U.S. recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, based on recent retail sales and jobless claims data.
The likelihood may drop further to 15% if August’s jobs report, due on September 6, shows positive results. Recent economic indicators, including a notable rise in July retail sales and a decrease in unemployment benefit claims, have strengthened U.S. stocks.
Goldman Sachs also anticipates that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, though a weaker jobs report could lead to a larger 50 basis point reduction.
Clever Robot News Desk 19th August 2024
