CLARITY Act Faces 75% Failure Risk as Crucial September Senate Vote Approaches

The U.S. CLARITY Act faces a growing risk of collapse, with TD Cowen estimating only a 25% chance. That the landmark crypto market structure bill becomes law this fall, implying a 75% probability of failure.

The Senate’s next critical test is scheduled for September 15, when lawmakers are expected to vote on a procedural cloture motion requiring 60 votes; with Republicans holding 53 seats. At least seven Democrats or independents would be needed if all Republicans support it. Major sticking points include ethics provisions involving government officials’ crypto interests, anti-money-laundering requirements. Bank Secrecy Act rules, and stablecoin rewards. TD Cowen outlined several scenarios in which the legislation could effectively die without ever reaching a final passage vote—including the scheduled vote being abandoned or an initial procedural victory followed by legislative paralysis.

Prediction markets have also turned pessimistic. While Reuters reports that the approaching November elections and limited Senate working days are further narrowing the window for passage. The bill is therefore entering a decisive period that could determine whether the U.S. establishes a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework in 2026 or pushes the issue into another congressional cycle.

Clever Robot News Desk 10^th July 2026